Bush is currently leading in Ohio by 136,221
If there
are 250,000 provisional ballots outstanding. The highest number
I've seen.
And 90% of those ballots are good, as
they were in 2000. That
leaves 225,000
votes.
If 85% of those ballots prove to be for
Kerry, about the number that Gore got in 2000. That leaves
us with 191,250, giving us a lead of 55,029.
If there are only 200,000 provisionals,
following the same calculation
would leave us with a lead of 16,779.
If the provisional ballots are
only 175,000 that leaves us with a deficit of -2,346 that will leaves
us in a position to get an automatic
statewide recount.
Or, to put it another way, an automatic recount
is triggered by a margin of 0.25% or between 13,000 and 16,000 votes.
